Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank says Apple has “enormous” potential to grow its sales in China. He estimates Apple will sell 25 million iPhones there this year, and sales should grow to at least 35 million in 2013.
AppleInsiderIf Apple adds China Mobile as a partner, as it has been rumored to do for some time, the iPhone maker’s addressable market in China would increase by about 125 million 3G subscribers in 2013, bringing the total number of potential customers to nearly 425 million.
Whitmore’s estimates are that Apple sold between 6 million and 6.5 million iPhones in the first quarter of calendar 2012. This is about 15 percent of the current market. iPhone momentum may slow slightly in China, as the iPhone 4S nears the end of its life-cycle.
He believes that Apple will benefit from the coming growth of 3G subscribers from China Telecom and China Unicom. If Apple were to grow its penetration of the potential subscriber base to between 20 and 25 percent, he estimates iPhone sales in China would be around 35 million in 2013.
While China Mobile is not an official carrier partner with Apple, the company does have 15 million IPhone users on its network.
The leading handset vendor in China is Samsung, with a a 28 percent share of the market. Nokia is second-largest with a 23 percent share, followed by Huawei (15 percent) and ZTE (13 percent), Apple comes in fifth with just 9 percent.
“We believe the iPhone is extremely well positioned to capture the tremendous growth in China and long-term opportunity for the iPhone in this market is substantial,” Whitmore wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
