A survey of 530 iPhone owners by Loop Ventures shows nearly half respondents plan to upgrade to a new device in the next year. That’s a good omen for sales of the upcoming 2018 iPhone lineup.
A new survey by Loup Ventures ahead of the arrival of this year’s iPhone lineup found that 48 percent of current iPhone owners plan to upgrade in the next year. That number compares to 25 percent when the survey was taken in June of 2017.
Gene Munster and Will Thompson note that the survey could be a “positive indicator of upcoming iPhone demand,” that could deliver 3% unit growth in fiscal year 2019. Wall Street consensus sees only flat growth.
Of the survey participants that say they plan to get a new iPhone, 42% say they’ll buy one from the 2018 line, 18% say they’ll opt for an iPhone X. Plus, 19% of current Android phone owners say they plan to switch to an iPhone in the next year.
“iPhone is entering a period of stability (0% to 5% unit growth for the next several years, driven by 805m+ active iPhones with a high (90%) retention rate,” the Munster and Thompson wrote. “Assuming a 3.5-year upgrade cycle and a 90% retention rate implies 207m iPhones sold each year, slightly below the Street’s 219m expected in FY18 and FY19.”
Apple is widely expected to unveil three new iPhone models at an event on or around September 12. They are expected to debut two new 6.5-inch and 5.8-inch models, along with a cheaper 6.1-inch LCD model.
