Apple industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims Apple has not increased iPhone 16 orders, despite the widely-held belief that Apple Intelligence will drive increased sales of the upcoming iPhone lineup. Kuo says recent earnings reports from Apple suppliers Largan and TSMC back up his claims.
Although there have been rumors of increased orders for iPhone 16 orders from time to time after WWDC, recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan) have hinted that the iPhone 16 orders may not have increased.
1. TSMC: We did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.
2. Largan: Orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year.
Kuo says that Apple’s iPhone 16 orders for the second half of this year are around 87 million units, which is four million less than the 91 million iPhone 15 units Apple ordered in 2023.
While certain suppliers may have been told to increase production, it may be due to “specific reasons within individual industries or components.”
Kup says the belief that Apple Intelligence will result in more iPhone 16 sales “may be too optimistic.”
The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.
Apple has already confirmed that Apple Intelligence will not initially or any time soon be available to European Union users, due to the “regulatory uncertainties” in that region. Apple also does not yet have an AI deal in place in China.
Initial sales of the iPhone 16 may also be slower than expected, as the expected new Siri Ai functionality will not be available until 2025.