Strong replacement demand for the iPhone 11 lineup and next year’s launch of the “iPhone SE 2” will allow Apple to sell 10% more iPhones in the first quarter of 2020, claims Apple industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in his latest research noe. (Via MacRumors)
We expect that combined iPhone shipments in 1Q20 will grow around 10% YoY thanks to the iPhone 11’s replacement demand boosted by more affordable prices and iPhone SE2’s shipments starting in 1Q20. We estimate that iPhone shipment in 1Q20 will be 45–50mn units (iPhone 11 Pro series and iPhone 11 to be 13–15 and 22–24mn units, respectively), which is better than around 42mn units of iPhone shipments in 1Q19 (iPhone XS series and iPhone XR to be around 12 and 14mn units, respectively).
Kuo estimates iPhone 11 series shipments will reach between 70 and 75 million units in 2019. He says those numbers could be better, but for supply constraints. A Nikkei Asian Review report last week claimed Apple had increased orders from its suppliers, thanks to stronger-than-expected demand for this year’s flagship handsets.
The report said the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro are seeing the strongest demand, while Apple is actually revising iPhone 11 Pro Max orders downward a bit, as it works to balance production with demand.
Kuo says shipments of the iPhone 11 Pro in 2019 should be around 37-40 million units, and shipments of the iPhone 11 will hit approximately 36 to 40 million units.
Kuo says “Pro” level iPhone shipments will lag behind last year’s iPhone XS shipments from last year, but only because of supply issues “increased production difficulties” of specific iPhone 11 Pro components. However, iPhone 11 shipments should come in higher than last year’s iPhone XR, mostly due to the fact the XR didn’t begin shipping last year until the middle of the fourth quarter.
Kuo estimates that “iPhone 11 shipments in 1Q20 (22–24mn units) will be better than those of iPhone XR in 1Q19 (14mn units) significantly.”
Kuo said last week that the new “iPhone SE 2” device will be similar in form factor and specs to the iPhone 8. He says the new device will boast an A13 chip and 3GB of RAM.
