Well-connected industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo issued a new research note on Monday, and he’s cutting his shipping estimates for Apple’s new iPhone XR handset by 30 million units.
Kuo says some of the decline will be offset by higher demand for the iPhone XS and older “legacy” models, but he has reduced his estimate for overall iPhone shipments by 15-20% for the first quarter of 2019.
Kuo, via MacRumors:
We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18–3Q19) for the following reasons: 1) Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market, 2) expectations from more users for more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series. We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.
Kuo sees iPhone shipments for the current quarter coming in at the same 75-80 million unit range he had previously predicted. However, he has reduced his estimate for the first quarter of 2019 down to 47-52 million, down from the 55-60 million he previously predicted.