Apple releases it’s new iPhone 5 on Friday, and while its huge base of current customers will certainly be looking to upgrade, analysts are saying a good amount of the new iPhone 5 owners will be converts from the Blackberry and Android camps.
Most of the initial rollout is expected to involve the former, with faithful Apple AAPL -0.64% customers queuing at the company’s retail stores for a chance to get the latest version of the popular smartphone. …But to meet Wall Street’s high expectations for the device, Apple also will need to keep bringing in customers who are new to the smartphone market — as well as entice others who are using competitors’ products, including Samsung, Motorola and BlackBerry devices.
“The initial action is typically repeat customers,” Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest Securities when interviewed about Apple’s sales immediately following an iPhone launch. “But through the product cycle, we certainly expect [the company] to take share.”
This will put Apple into an even more intense battle against industry and legal rival Samsung, the Korean electronics monolith who is a top contender in the smartphone category.
Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms have both benefited greatly from the decline in Blackberry and Nokia users. BlackBerry accounted for more than 45% of smartphone sales in the United States in 2008, but garnered less than a 3% of the market in the first half of this year, according to data from IDC.
“I think you’ll see a lot of people switching from BlackBerry and some switching from Android,” said Carolina Milanesi of market-research firm Gartner.
Android has been the most popular alternative to the iPhone. Android has become the world’s top-selling mobile platform since its introduction in 2008. Samsung has benefited greatly from its association with Android, accounting for about 33% of the global smartphone market in the second quarter of this year.
Many analysts expect Apple to sell between 5 to 10 million iPhone 5 devices in the first two weeks of being on the market.
Ben Reitzes of Barclays Capital says that he believes Apple has plans to build about 50 million iPhone 5 units in the December quarter, and expects strong demand to persist into next year.
“The main driver of iPhone sales momentum into mid-2013 could be China, where Apple needs to strike a deal with China Mobile for the first time,” he said.
