JP Morgan analyst Mike Moskowitz issued a note to investors on Tuesday saying ultrabooks will not become “meaningful enough” to drive growth in the notebook PC market until 2013, and are “just more of the same in PCs”.
Analyst Mike Moskowitz issued a “Quick Thoughts” note to investors on Tuesday calling ultrabooks “just more of the same in PCs.” He viewed the new category of laptops as drawing heavily on Apple’s design cues from the MacBook Air, which first arrived in 2008.
“It seems that everyone wants to be like Apple,” he said. “All of this market emulation of Apple is ironic, in our view, given the initial skepticism that the MacBook Air received.”
The ultrabook design specification was introduced by Intel last May at the Computex trade show. The chipmaker had set a goal of reaching 40% of the consumer laptop market by the end of 2012.
The analyst was skeptical that Intel would reach that goal, citing obstacles such as price points, replacement cycles, and increased competition from smartphones and tablets for IT dollars.
J.P. Morgan has doubts that Intel’s efforts will take. Moskowitz characterized Apple’s MacBook Air as a one-of-a-kind success story that was highly unlikely to transfer to ultrabooks.
Intel expects more than 75 different ultrabooks to be introduced this year. Moskowitz’s says the high number of unique, but barely differentiated, models could “overwhelm or confuse potential customers.”
The MacBook Air saw a 69.3 percent three-year compound annual growth rate through the third quarter of 2011. By comparison, the total notebook PC market had a CAGR of 15.8 percent during the same period.