Walkley expects Apple to sell 30.5 million iPhones by the end of the year, up from 17.1 million iPhone sold at the end of last quarter (just before the iPhone 4S was released). His estimate was revised from 29 million, suggesting extremely strong growth for the iPhone.
He also notes that Apple has cut significantly into HTC’s share, which is down 39%, Nokia’s share, which is down 17%, and Sony Ericsson’s share, which is down 11%. The embedded chart compares the September quarter numbers to Walkley’s anticipated year-end figures.
Also notable in his report is that Walkley expects Amazon’s Kindle Fire to cut significantly into the iPad’s market share, reducing the iPad’s dominance from 74% to just 53% by the end of the year due to its much lower price point.
While Walkley’s iPhone projections are exciting, and may well come true, I’m highly skeptical of the Kindle Fire cutting into the iPad as significantly as he proposes, especially considering the overwhelming consumer preference in favor of the Kindle Fire, as well as the fact that the Kindle Fire really isn’t a direct competitor.
